Climate Fiction by Hypothesis — A Hypothesis-Audit Catalog

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Audit failure

Click any hypothesis to audit its claim entitlement.

1.What is measured?

Direct atmospheric measurement is the only fully-measured term in most chains. Many headline hypotheses are derived, modelled, or constructed from those measurements rather than measured directly. The audit asks which is which.
2.What is calculated or inferred?

Calculation and inference each carry assumptions. Effective emission height, S₀/4 averaging, equivalent forcing — these are derived constructs, not direct measurements. Audit names the calculation method and exposes its assumptions.
3.What mechanism is being claimed?

A hypothesis without a stated mechanism is correlation in fancy clothes. Audit asks for the causal pathway and tests whether it is consistent with established physics — not just curve-fitted to existing data.
4.What assumptions or omissions matter?

Boundary conditions, initial values, parameter choices, unstated coupling assumptions, and quietly-omitted terms. The audit asks which of these the hypothesis is most sensitive to — and whether any of them are themselves audited.
5.What claim is justified?

The framework's signature question. A hypothesis is not a verdict. The audit asks: what reliance class has it actually earned, and does the claim being made stay inside that class?